The US needs to learn from Brazil: post-election edition

The 2022 presidential election in Brazil was fraught with problems, including hard-set polarity and invective. The first round of voting in October featured 11 candidates, but only two were viable in the runoff elections on October 30th. I’ve had a privileged opportunity to observe events firsthand because I arrived in Brazil on October 21st in preparation for the event celebrating the release of my novel, a lua ao avesso.

The sitting president who was up for re-election, Jair Bolsonaro, is a far-right firebrand who swept into office in 2018 on an enormous wave of social media, like nothing that happened before in Brazil, or anywhere else. His election surprised a lot of pundits, and as president he continued his nostalgia for the military-civilian dictatorship of 1964 to 1985; incentivized and supported by the United States, it must be said. The presidency did not cause Bolsonaro to develop a diplomatic filter for his verbiage, and he continued his famous diatribes, which were popular among his fervent and adoring base. In the months leading up to the election Bolsonaro railed against the election system and alleged it was vulnerable to fraud.

His opponent Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, known simply as Lula, is a leftist former two-term president who served 580 days in prison on a corruption conviction that was later vacated on a technicality. He was not absolved, a fact that Bolsonaro’s supporters emphasize at every opportunity. Lula’s time as president was noted for lifting millions out of poverty, due in part to a commodities boom that benefited Brazil, but certainly by policies rooted in his childhood experience of poverty in Brazil’s Northeast.

Lula was widely predicted to lead in the initial phase of voting by a wide margin, perhaps 15%. This turned out to be roughly 5%, and the usual finger pointing at pollsters and pundits ensued. Brazil was on edge in the period leading up to the runoff.

Brazil has a unique electronic voting system, where voters cast their ballots on one day (a Sunday) and the results are final and reported about three hours later. The system has been in place since the late 1990s and there is no evidence it’s been subject to fraud or irregularities. Just before 8:00 PM on the day of the runoff, the final result was called (as is customary, by Brazil’s federal election court, not a news agency) in favor of Lula by a razor thin margin, 50.9% to 49.1% for Bolsonaro.

Lula came out and made a unifying statement; Bolsonaro said nothing. For 45 hours. Meanwhile, truckers supporting Bolsonaro set up blockades across Brazil’s major highways and thoroughfares, paralyzing transit. It was reported that the federal highway police had set up checkpoints to slow traffic on the day of the election in the Northeast, a Lula stronghold.

Forty-five hours after the election was called, Bolsonaro appeared before a podium at the presidential palace and gave a two-minute statement in statesman-like and artfully ambiguous terms, not ceding the election and delivering digs at his enemies. He said the “popular movements” (understand by everyone to mean the blockades) were the result of indignation and a feeling of injustice about the election. He didn’t mention Lula, and he didn’t concede. His chief of staff appeared a moment later and said the administration would comply with the laws of the country and work on the transition.

Immediately after the election was called, legislative and gubernatorial leaders, including many allied with Bolsonaro, congratulated Lula as president-elect. The date and location of the transition team meetings was declared for a few days later. Truckers and others continued their blockades, and the effects began to be felt. The highest tribunal court authorized actions to remove the blockades.

After nearly 72 hours, President Bolsonaro posted a taped message on social media, looking youthful and strong in a T-shirt, asking his supporters to remove the road blockades. He acknowledged they were upset and sad; he said he was too. The message in a nutshell: let’s step back and live to fight another day.

Meanwhile, authorized by the highest court in the land, police operations began to remove the illegal blockades. Fines in the millions in Brazil’s currency, the real, were hammered down on miscreants.

Today, the electoral transition commission met for the first time. It’s even suggested that the president’s party may cede the leadership of congress to another party in alliance. The transition negotiator for Lula’s administration is Geraldo Alckmin, a moderate and former governor of São Paulo who is vice president-elect. He appeared before the microphones today to make a statement about the meetings and noted that President Bolsonaro has reaffirmed his support of the transition. My English-speaking ears are struck by how much the pronunciation of the name Alckmin sounds like alchemy. Let’s hope he has that gift.

The United States is looking ahead to the mid-term elections next week. There is an underlying threat of violence that has everyone concerned. With that in mind, I make note of the following:

Most important? Bolsonaro’s allies got in line with democracy and got behind the transition. They didn’t give oxygen to those who claimed the elections were rigged. Compare this to the US, where Senate Minority Leader McConnell and House Minority Leader McCarthy expressed their outrage in the first 24 hours and then got in line and supported Trump’s Big Lie. And where two years after the 2020 election, pretty much every Republican is toeing the line on the Big Lie. Either that or they are retiring.

When his supporters were blocking roads and causing disruption to the country, Bolsonaro was initially dog-whistle but later dialed it back to tell his supporters they should go home. Trump enjoyed the television coverage of his people ransacking the capital until he told the insurrectionists “We love you,” and that they should go home. Did Bolsonaro enjoy coverage of his supporters paralyzing the country? Time and investigative reporting will tell. But once there were deaths of blockade supporters by vehicle, Bolsonaro called for calm.

An inquiry into the actions of the head of the federal highway police was announced. He is known to have posted in support of Bolsonaro on Instagram and alleged to have authorized or even orchestrated operations to stop buses in the Northeast on election day, potentially impeding voters who in large part supported Lula.

News reports referring to the blockades characterized the actions as “antidemocratic” once Brazil’s high court authorized actions against the truckers. And that term is now the consistent one used. Imagine if everyone called January 6th an insurrection by an antidemocratic movement. This is not to say that Bolsonaro’s supporters agree with this framing, but consistent terminology by the media is important.

In Brazil there is a supreme electoral court, and the head justice, Alexandre Moraes, has the authority to take action against violations of electoral law. He has been accused by both sides of the political spectrum of overstepping the bounds of his remit, and he has been unwavering in ruling against both sides in questions regarding advertising and social media. But his office has been critical in keeping all parties within the lines of electoral law.

Overall, the most important thing is that the engine of Brazil’s government is moving forward, negotiating the transition to Lula’s administration which will be inaugurated on January 1, 2023. There are still issues and arguments, but Americans should look at the situation here with admiration. It’s still problematic, it’s still in flux, but Brazil’s democracy, the fourth largest in the world, is alive and well.