Brazil’s Elections 2022: the day after
It’s a dark and stormy night in Brasília. We are having pancadas de chuva: translated as rain showers but literally “spankings of rain.” So appropriate. And it’s Halloween, though there’s not a trick or treat in sight in my rented apartment in a gated, secure condominium. Lightning turns night to day and thunder follows. Fresh, cool air wafts in the windows next to my desk.
Lula won the election, but by a razor thin margin. Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, known only as Lula, former president, leftist, imperfect but gifted politician. Lula spent 18 months in prison for corruption but was released due to a finding that the judge in his case was biased. The judge, Sergio Moro, was widely regarded as a crusader against corruption but later resigned and joined the Bolsonaro administration. Lula surely did engage in some forms of corruption; this is not a bug but a feature of politics in Brazil. Sadly.
Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro, the sitting president, a former army captain who gained widespread support by running against corruption. Somehow Bolsonaro has managed to slither out of the many allegations of his own corruption, though perhaps this will change when he is no longer protected by the position of the presidency. What is well established is Bolsonaro’s misogyny, homophobia, racism and general unfitness for the office of the presidency.
In the days running up to the election, it felt to me like the entire country had inhaled and held its breath. Here in Brasília, which delivered an overwhelming majority of votes to Bolsonaro, cars sporting his image and number, 22, were everywhere. There was the occasional Lula 13 but they were scarcer.
Yesterday the federal highway police were stopping buses in Northeast Brazil, a Lula stronghold, allegedly to prevent voters from casting ballots. The head of the agency had posted stories supporting Bolsonaro on his Instagram feed; stories are gone after 24 hours and somehow no one captured them. He claimed he had nothing to do with actions by his officers detaining voters. The head of the elections judiciary said people were delayed but succeeded in voting. But what of the voters who turned back in their personal vehicles? Or who decided not to vote out of fear of violence?
The elections regulations dictated that all police should desist from operations that stop vehicles on the highways on election day. Clearly that was violated in the Northeast. Interestingly, returning from a quick stop at the supermarket yesterday afternoon I encountered a blitz, though to be fair and accurate it was after 5:00 PM, and the polls were closed. Blitz is what Brazilians call any police operation of stopping cars on the highway. I saw a line of cars stopped in front of me on the three-lane road, blue lights flashing. Military police were checking documents and using a handheld device to check blood alcohol. When I got to the front of the line in my lane, the officer was very respectful. “Boa noite, senhora.” Good evening, ma’am. I smiled at him and said “Boa noite.” He simply waved me on, “A senhora pode continuar.” You may go ahead, ma’am.
Back at the apartment I was glued to the television and reporting of the unofficial results, which began with polls from Bolsonaro’s strongholds and showed him ahead. When the results came in from the Northeast Lula pulled ahead, but never by much. When the result was statistically impossible for Bolsonaro to overcome, Lula was declared the president-elect with 50.9% of the vote, versus Bolsonaro with 49.1%. The tightest election in Brazilian history. The declaration of the winner in Brazil is by the Superior Electoral Court.
Lula made a unifying statement yesterday evening, saying that he would be working for everyone, not just the people who voted for him. He said, “we are not two Brazils . . . but one great nation.” Everyone was waiting for Bolsonaro to make a statement, but it didn’t happen.
And all day today, Bolsonaro was apparently at the presidential residence in Brasília. And not a word from him. This evening, a spokesman appeared to say President Bolsonaro would not be making a statement today. Bolsonaro’s son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, tweeted late today “Dad, I’m with you no matter what comes.”
There’s been no January 6th style activity, but long-haul truckers have blocked major highways in 20 states (there are 26 total), preventing delivery of food and gasoline. All products in Brazil are delivered by truck; there is no major railway system as a backup. The highway police say they are following all regulations in dealing with the situation. The truckers are protesting the election outcome. Video on my television screen as I write this shows lines of buses, trucks and cars in multiple states unable to move, blocked by semi-trailers or in some cases the truckers damaged the highway in both directions to prevent transit.
So we wait for the other shoe to drop. It has been widely feared that Bolsonaro will claim elections were rigged, that he actually won, as he pulls the Trump rabbit out of a hat. Unfortunately, the margin is so small it gives Bolsonaro oxygen to make this claim, though there has been no evidence presented that Brazil’s electronic voting system is compromised. The people of Brazil continue to hold their breath, waiting for a resolution, their free and fair elections passed but the loser refusing to acknowledge the result.