Bolsonaro v. Lula: runoff election October 30, 2022
Brazil’s presidential election on October 2 yielded unexpected results. There were 11 candidates, but only two were considered viable: the current president, Jair Bolsonaro, and Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, a former president known as Lula. The polls and pundits had predicted that Lula would win, the question seemed only to be whether he could garner more than 50% of the votes in order to avoid a runoff. In the final days, the gap between Bolsonaro and Lula had begun to narrow, but many polls had Lula ahead by 15 points.
In a podcast by Roda Viva on September 23, Steven Levitsky, Harvard professor and co-author of How Democracies Die, warned that a vote for the lesser candidates would provide oxygen for Bolsonaro and enable him to promote his “rigged election” narrative. Levitsky voiced concern that people would vote for their favorite non-viable candidate, with a plan to vote for Lula in the second round. Levitsky was not arguing in favor of Lula but suggesting that a second Bolsonaro term would be potentially deadly to Brazil’s democracy, given Bolsonaro’s embrace of authoritarianism and his nostalgia for the days of the civilian-military dictatorship.
The outcome of the election was Lula 48%, Bolsonaro 43%. Lula spoke to supporters and said he and his supporters would continue to work and win the runoff. Bolsonaro stridently promoted the idea that the results proved what he had been saying, that the system was rigged and that the mainstream media were telling lies about him.
What happened? Just like in the United States in recent years, the polls were flawed. It is likely that poor voters who are most likely to vote for Lula were oversampled, and that Bolsonaro supporters were underrepresented. Bolsonaro’s evangelical and far-right base are suspicious of polls and may have refused to participate in greater numbers than occurred on the other side. Maybe some of the poll respondents were what we call in the US “shy voters;” they are going to vote for Bolsonaro, but he is so poorly regarded they don’t want to admit it to a pollster. Regardless of the reason, it is probably best to discount any polling results when trying to predict the outcome of the runoff.
Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo credited a last-minute video endorsement by disgraced former American president Donald Trump, recorded on Trump’s private jet after a MAGA rally five days before the election in Brazil, with giving Bolsonaro a boost.
What are the current predictions? In August 2021 Bolsonaro told a group of evangelical leaders that he would be arrested, killed or victorious in the 2022 election. He added that “No man on earth will threaten me.” There are concerns that Bolsonaro will refuse to leave office if he loses the election, and that he will incite his followers to violence to allow him to stay in power . . . just as Trump did after his defeat in 2020.
In 2018 Bolsonaro ran on an anti-corruption platform by emphasizing the fact that he was never entangled in a corruption scandal. Perhaps that is because he was such an ineffective and nonproductive legislator that no one would see any reason to pay him a bribe. Bribes are given to rainmakers who can get results for the entities that bribe them.
Bolsonaro tried and failed recently to suppress reports of his purchases of real estate with cash over the last 30 years, when the Federal Supreme Court in late September lifted censorship of reporting on the transactions. Bolsonaro used cash to buy houses, apartments and land in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Brasília, accounting for half his net worth. Purchases were made by Bolsonaro himself or by his family members, more than 50 properties worth millions in US dollars.
For his part, Lula was jailed for 18 months for corruption, later being released after his conviction was overturned, thus enabling him to run again for president (Brazil limits the president to two consecutive terms but does not prohibit serving again). Long a firebrand of the leftist Workers’ Party, he moderated his discourse over the years, and was hugely popular while in office. He is credited with lifting huge segments of the population out of poverty during his tenure. Having lived in Brazil in the 1980s I was aware of Lula, but never understood why anyone thought he would ever be president. I was shocked when he was elected in 2002. Then I was in Brazil on January 1, 2003, the day he was inaugurated as president for his first term in office. Listening to his inaugural speech, I was stunned by his visionary charisma and his ability to communicate that vision to the average person. The line I most remember (my loosely translated recollection): “If when I complete my term in office, every Brazilian has breakfast, lunch and dinner, I will have fulfilled my duty.” I was in tears.
Lula delivered on his promise, providing a basic income to families and reducing the prevalence of hunger in the country, particularly the impoverished Northeast from which he hails. The economy boomed. Sadly, his term was also distinguished by corruption, with a “monthly payment” going to legislators who supported his agenda. And he was caught up in the “car wash” payola scandal. He was indicted and convicted of money laundering on a rather narrow case involving his personal residence and sentenced to prison. The federal judge in the case, Sergio Moura, was widely regarded as a crusading knight on a white horse, but later ruled by the judiciary to have been biased and Moura left to serve as Minister of Justice and Security in the Bolsonaro administration. Lula’s conviction was thrown out on a technicality, freeing him to run for election again as president.
As we await the runoff election on October 30th, tensions are running high. Up to 20% of the electorate may have stayed home on October 2nd because of fears of violence. A video of Bolsonaro talking about his willingness to engage in cannibalism: see here the complete interview with the New York Times’ Simon Romero in 2016 has gone viral, and an electoral judge has ordered the Lula campaign not to proceed with their plans to use the clip in a campaign ad (which as a political strategist, I regard as a win for them—they “kicked the story” and made anyone who didn’t see the viral video go look for it). Bolsonaro supporters (I saw this in a family member’s social media feed) are posting cartoon clips of Lula’s severed head. Outrageous fake videos abound.
I’ve waited to write this blog post because I needed time to process the unexpected results of the first round of voting, which I found profoundly saddening. Just like in the US with Donald Trump, people are voting against their own interests without realizing it because they are captivated by the Christian Nationalist rhetoric. And those who don’t hold those views find themselves in peril: the poor, women, LGBTQ people, people of color, historically marginalized people.
I’ve tried to be even handed in this post. But I agree with Professor Levitsky, democracy in Brazil is on the line. And it is not at all certain that Bolsonaro will lose the runoff election.